Stock can go up and down a few percentage everyday without anything significant reported. “We see clear downside risk to this goal, with our own modeling showing an 8% ROCE in 2025 on a combination of lower downstream margin assumptions, lower crude price forecasts and risk around execution/capture rates.“[E]xxon’s one-year forward relative to free cash flow versus U.S. and global oils has widened out significantly,” Mehta said. An example is TEVA! Let's check it out. Although AMD has no significant maturities due until 2022, the company is still expected to pay back the reminder of its 6.75% notes -- i.e., those with the lowest interest rate among AMD's senior notes -- by this coming March.Whereas AMD's second quarter was historically weak under the old accounting system, this year's second quarter benefited from ASC 606 pulling forward some revenue that the company would have otherwise recognized three months later. Worse, the company will be raising cash at more onerous rates.While you could argue that AMD has significantly smaller market share than Intel does (implying more upside potential), I'd reply that the CPU and GPU markets are highly competitive -- meaning that AMD has a lot more to prove. ... Amd is not trade low. “The core of the Exxon bull case has been predicated on the company improving its return on capital, with a 15% ROCE 2025 goal set out that the 2018 Analyst Day,” Mehta wrote in a note to clients. Ryanair goes in the opposite direction, serving 29 European nations (and Morocco and the Canary Islands) at prices so low as to seem implausible.
AMD’s rapidly rising market share explains why the stock has outperformed its peers by a wide margin in 2019 so far. You can follow him on Twitter @TomiKilgore.Before Mehta’s downgrade, only 3 of the 23 analysts surveyed by FactSet were bearish on Exxon, and only 16% of the companies covered by Goldman analysts were rated sell. By my most aggressive estimates, the company is likely to generate no more than $50 million of free cash flow.Overall, the company currently carries about $500 million of net debt. Essentially, this new standard spells out how companies should book recurring revenue. Low Liquidity Makes Trading Difficult . In January 2020, Exxon now trades at 5.5% lower free cash flow yields on our estimates.”Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. sank Monday to the lowest prices seen in a decade, after Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta said it was time to sell, citing concerns that the oil giant is on track to come up well short of its target for investment returns.The oil giant’s stock dropped 2.2% to buck the rally in the broader stock market. AMD has a lot of competitive products out or about to be out like the Threadripper, Ryzen, and PetaFLOP computer yet they only trade around $13. Many investors misunderstood the fact that the company's strong second-quarter results were an anomaly that management has already factored into the company's 2018 full-year guidance.Including the top range of AMD's fourth-quarter guidance ($1.5 billion) implies that the stock will, in the best-case scenario, finish 2018 up 23%.I believe that AMD will generate $50 million of free cash flow at best for 2018, while its top line will likely sustainably grow at a 15%-20% compound annual growth rate.Add it all up and I believe that AMD's lightly fluctuating share price gives investors the illusion of safety.Let's look at AMD's financial position next.But to me, the stock's current valuation is highly inflated -- and not commensurate with either its market share or its free-cash-flow-generating abilities.But AMD currently trades at about a $23.7 billion market -- or more than 400x free cash flow. The number of AMD shares sold short has jumped 5% since last month, meaning that 13% of the stock is now being sold short.AMD has rallied from around $16 in late July to nearly $24 now -- an almost 50% gain.
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